A METHOD I USE
SIGNAL Method.
SIGNAL is the method I use to figure out why results changed. It takes everything a team is seeing and narrows it down to one decision and one test.
It’s one part of how I work. It helps make sure we’re working on the right problem.
One decision.
One test.
↻ Then it starts again
THE SIX STEPS
Each step leaves less to look at.
You start with everything you can see. You end with one test. The bar under each step shows how much is left.
Figure out what’s going on
S
Scan
Get all the facts in one place.
Pull together the numbers, the history, and what the people closest to the work are seeing. Include what the data won’t show you, like a policy change, a site redesign, or a new rule from leadership. Look at the whole system before changing any part of it. Don’t explain anything yet.
What you have after
Everything you can see
I
Identify
Find the step where results drop off.
Look for the stage or group where results stop matching what you expected. That’s usually where to start looking.
What you have after
The few places where results don’t match
G
Ground
Check each cause against the evidence.
For each possible cause, ask what the data actually shows. Separate what’s true from what people hope is true. Keep more than one explanation open until the evidence rules some out. Before you call a drop real, check it two ways, like this year against last year and the last 12 months against the 12 before. If it only shows up one way, it’s probably timing.
What you have after
The causes the data supports
N
Narrow
Pick the one change that matters most.
Choose the change that would make the biggest difference and that you can actually do next. Everything else waits.
What you have after
One thing to work on
Turn it into a test
A
Architect
Design the test.
Decide what you’ll change, what you expect to happen, and what result would prove you wrong.
What you have after
A test, and the result that would prove it wrong
L
Launch
Start it.
Name the owner, set the start date, and agree on what to track. If you never test it, nothing changes.
What you have after
An owner, a start date, and what to track
BEFORE IT DECIDES
How it avoids jumping to conclusions.
The costly mistake is fixing the wrong thing with confidence. So SIGNAL treats every early answer as one possible explanation.
- It keeps more than one explanation open until the evidence rules some out.
- It checks a drop two ways before calling it real.
- When the data can’t tell two explanations apart, it asks the people closest to the work.
- It says up front what would change its mind.
- It’s comfortable saying “we don’t know yet.”
Here’s an example. Admissions drop at one step. The data shows when it happened, but not why. Someone in the room knows the entry requirement changed that month. That one fact changes the fix from a marketing problem to a leadership decision.
WHY IT EXISTS
Most growth plans start with a guess.
When results disappoint, most teams know what they want to do next within a day. Buy more leads. Launch a new campaign. Bring in a new tool.
Sometimes that’s right. Often it fixes the place where the problem showed up, and that isn’t always where it started.
A team usually has plenty of data. The hard part is telling which numbers point to the cause.
I built SIGNAL to slow down that first step a little. It gives a team a shared way to look at the evidence, agree on what’s true, and pick one thing to try first. Then it ends with a test that has an owner and a start date, because figuring out the problem only matters if it changes what you do.
THE IDEA UNDERNEATH
Problem, mechanism, condition.
Across the steps, I keep three things separate. Most teams mix them together.
Problem
What’s happening
Revenue is under plan.
This is what people notice.
→
Mechanism
What’s causing it
New leads wait four days for a call.
Fixing this helps for a while.
→
Condition
What keeps the cause in place
Sales and marketing are paid on numbers that work against each other.
Changing this can last.
You haven’t fully named a condition until you know who could change it and what it would cost them.
The condition is often one of the four things growth needs: demand, capability, direction, or people. In this example, it’s direction. The plan says one thing and the pay plan says another.
WHAT COMES OUT OF IT
One decision, in three parts.
SIGNAL ends with one choice the team can act on right away.
PART 1
The change to make now
The one thing worth working on first, and why it comes before everything else.
PART 2
The test that checks it
What you’ll change, what you expect to see, who owns it, and when it starts.
PART 3
What to track next
The numbers that show whether it worked, and when the next problem is ready to work on.
IN PRACTICE
How I use it.
I don’t run every step every time. Some problems take ten minutes. Some take a few weeks.
The steps are a check on my own thinking. They keep me from jumping to a fix before I understand the problem. They also help a team argue about evidence instead of opinions.